Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x683a…3b03 other 272 markets active 2h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,004 (+4%) realized +$11,005 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%133W / 135L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$534est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$590
7 days+$809
14 days+$2,541
30 days+$4,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$11,536
sports 29% +$9
world 3% −$671
politics 3% +$178
crypto 1% −$1,339
tech 1% +$745
culture 1% +$291
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.2% -6.6% 43% 43% -0.9%
≤30d 49 +11.9% +1.3% 51% 43% +5.5%
≤90d 93 +14.4% +3.5% 45% 41% -0.6%
all 268 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 41% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 41% -5.6%
10% -16.3% 35% -14.6%
15% -24.4% 29% -22.9%
20% -31.8% 22% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$310 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$11,005
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$534
Open positions1
Markets (closed)268 / 272
History coverage688d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 67¢ 65¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $514 −$179 -35%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 −$75 -37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $407 −$250 -61%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 19 $611 −$78 -13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $204 −$92 -45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $141 −$32 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$309 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 −$192 -77%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $263 −$258 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $315 +$305 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $153 +$377 +246%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$41 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $360 +$140 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $609 +$490 +80%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $606 −$403 -66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$49 -32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$513 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $859 −$423 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $252 −$131 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $335 −$248 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $224 +$216 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $406 −$200 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $252 +$69 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $211 +$48 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $380 −$312 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $711 +$888 +125%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $233 −$230 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $470 +$530 +113%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $202 +$131 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $204 −$94 -46%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $508 +$462 +91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,250 +$660 +53%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $252 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,464 +$42 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $629 −$29 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $406 +$463 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $405 −$126 -31%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $150 +$54 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $942 +$93 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $302 +$109 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $239 −$137 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $706 +$1,284 +182%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4,065 −$632 -16%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $2,024 +$1,353 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $696 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $400 −$254 -64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,135 +$83 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2,162 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $516 +$307 +60%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $558 −$236 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $117 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $210 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $217 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $127 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $304 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $147 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $305 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win o BUY 19¢ $102 8h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $533 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $112 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $204 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 37¢ $109 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $74 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 23h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $611 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $305 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 33h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 35h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $160 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $315 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 17¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $295 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $254 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $360 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $148.75 · 1896 history records