Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x683a…4c08 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$254 (+1%) realized +$254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%43W / 2L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$19
world 23% +$226
sports 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 35 +1.9% -7.8% 94% 3% -8.4%
all 45 +1.5% -8.2% 96% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.6%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×997.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×42908.72 per $1 lost it wins $42908.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses43 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage93d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $319 $319 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $321 +$1 +0%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $214 +$105 +49%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $205 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $211 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? Apr 28 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,098 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $1,053 +$68 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $994 +$42 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $1,051 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 16? Apr 16 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Apr 16 $841 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,048 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? Apr 15 $1,048 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? Apr 13 $307 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 12? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on April 12? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 on April 12? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $595 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 12? Apr 13 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 11? Apr 12 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 10? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on April 10? Apr 11 $808 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 9? Apr 10 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 8? Apr 09 $768 +$1 +0%
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 Apr 07 $1,008 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $1,026 +$1 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Apr 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1,018 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 2? Apr 03 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on March 31? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 01 $958 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $1,015 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1,006 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 30? Mar 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 30? Mar 30 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on March 30? Mar 30 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 29? Mar 30 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on March 28? Mar 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 28? Mar 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 28? Mar 29 $393 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 28? Mar 29 $432 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $319 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $321 27d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 67¢ $214 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $205 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $211 45d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $210 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1,062 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $25 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $6 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1,098 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,120 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,053 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 74¢ $1,036 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $765 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $2 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $6 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $7 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $90 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $123 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $841 74d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $207 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,048 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.10 · official $319.10 (match) · 165 history records