Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6838…6911 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized +$93 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$146
sports 30% +$470
crypto 22% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 44% +21.7%
≤30d 27 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 44% +21.7%
≤90d 27 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 44% +21.7%
all 27 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 44% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 44% +21.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 33% +10.0%
15% -23.4% 26% -0.6%
20% -30.9% 22% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$39 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $200 $115 −$85 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $192 +$233 +121%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $184 +$313 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $51 +$333 +649%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$24 +116%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $425 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $192 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $102 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $102 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL 98¢ $498 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 36¢ $184 33h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 27¢ $48 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $52 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $36 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.03 · official $263.03 (match) · 69 history records