Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6833…2011 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$525 (-20%) realized −$487 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$323
14 days+$280
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$303
sports 35% +$110
world 14% −$229
crypto 2% −$12
politics 2% −$27
culture 1% −$4
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +77.3% +60.4% 50% 40% +46.3%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 27% +15.9%
≤90d 77 -29.8% -36.4% 21% 19% -28.4%
all 89 -29.3% -36.0% 22% 19% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 19% -28.2%
10% -42.1% 19% -35.1%
15% -47.7% 17% -41.3%
20% -52.8% 17% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$20 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 69
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions16
Markets (closed)89 / 105
History coverage112d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $100 $169 +$69 (+69%)
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? No 24¢ 16¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $48 $10 −$38 (-80%)
Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 62¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $133 +$9 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$10 -20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$357 +624%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $61 +$59 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 +$24 +238%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$54 +262%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $20 −$1 -5%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $142 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $41 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $37 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 11d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 11d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.04 · official $396.28 (match) · 227 history records