Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6832…831f
sports · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$23,736 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,700 · open −$2,396
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 7 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25,875
7 days−$20,700
14 days−$20,700
30 days−$20,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner T1 67¢ 100¢ $5,637 $8,369 +$2,731 (+48%)
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Verdant 54¢ 50¢ $9,076 $8,338 −$738 (-8%)
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? No 69¢ 100¢ $3,466 $4,999 +$1,534 (+44%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 36¢ 26¢ $2,331 $1,700 −$631 (-27%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner MARKandLARRY 51¢ 100¢ $302 $596 +$294 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A MARKandLARRY 66¢ 100¢ $252 $384 +$132 (+52%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 81¢ 100¢ $164 $201 +$38 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 56¢ 100¢ $108 $191 +$83 (+77%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 63¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 25¢ $1,131 $2 −$1,128 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage G2 Ares 25¢ $571 $1 −$570 (-100%)
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will India win on 2026-06-09? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 38¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+163%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner FlyQuest 45¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+120%)
LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Galions 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Liverpool FC 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-12? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+175%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 28¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+253%)
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? No 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Ñublense end in a draw? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner LNG Esports 55¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Cloud9 44¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 12 $9,076 −$954 -10%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 12 $3,466 +$1,534 +44%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $0 −$914 -16627173%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $0 +$75 +28244%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $345 −$1,270 -368%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $847 −$878 -104%
LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Play Jun 12 $105 −$119 -113%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Jun 12 $484 −$509 -105%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $36 −$80 -225%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$6 -154%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Ñublense end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 12 $0 −$24 -7485%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,375 −$2,327 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $162 −$393 -243%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 12 $422 −$392 -93%
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ryotaro Taguchi Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Faria Jun 12 $16 +$21 +130%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 12 $347 −$1,339 -386%
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery Jun 12 $162 −$135 -83%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 12 $1,225 −$931 -76%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$124 -547%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,652 −$1,756 -106%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 12 $639 −$1,162 -182%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 12 $1,129 −$1,098 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 12 $78 −$71 -91%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $215 −$218 -102%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 12 $1 +$157 +25215%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 12 $50 −$29 -57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $32 −$1,342 -4259%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 12 $1 −$27 -3024%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $207 −$190 -92%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $24 −$27 -114%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $0 +$10 +2917%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $198 −$207 -105%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Alexis Galar Jun 12 $217 −$216 -100%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Jun 12 $403 −$86 -21%
Cervia: Stefan Dostanic vs Francesco Forti Jun 12 $573 −$378 -66%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $235 −$120 -51%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $11 −$14 -137%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $192 −$142 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$38,335
other 5% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $222 3m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 97¢ $9 26m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G SELL Abyssal $0 31m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G SELL Abyssal $0 31m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 86¢ $73 32m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 84¢ $78 32m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $7 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $13 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $24 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $57 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 27¢ $8 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 27¢ $30 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $25 35m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 $26 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 $2 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $3 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 29¢ $3 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $1 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 $1 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $1 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 $36 36m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $25 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $6 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 $0 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $2 37m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 12¢ $0 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 13¢ $10 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 11¢ $4 38m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 12¢ $1 38m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 68¢ $5 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 18% -12.7%
≤30d 273 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 18% -12.7%
≤90d 273 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 18% -12.7%
all 273 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 18% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1293.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 18% -12.7%
10% -14.9% 15% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 11% -28.7%
20% -30.7% 9% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,846.69 · official $24,797.58 (match) · 3500 history records