Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6832…af80 world 26 markets active 6d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+15%) realized +$0 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$3
politics 26% +$20
sports 23% +$1
other 11% −$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.1% +18.6% 75% 25% +18.6%
≤30d 4 +31.1% +18.6% 75% 25% +18.6%
≤90d 23 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 52% -8.6%
all 23 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 52% -8.6%
10% -20.9% 30% -17.4%
15% -28.5% 30% -25.4%
20% -35.5% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage81d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 90¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+103%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +127%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $3 $0 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 21 $5 +$2 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 07 $8 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $4 +$2 +60%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$1 +11%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $4 +$3 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 01 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $3 +$1 +40%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Mar 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 25 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 96¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $3 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $15 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 86¢ $3 56d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 56d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 99¢ $7 56d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 77¢ $3 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 67¢ $5 75d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 62¢ $4 76d
Canucks vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 79¢ $4 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 62¢ $2 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 46¢ $3 76d
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 78d
Jets vs. Blackhawks BUY Jets 58¢ $4 78d
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $4 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 79d
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Ricky Simon 62¢ $3 81d
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers BUY Texas Longhorns 25¢ $3 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 68¢ $2 85d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $2 85d
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 86¢ $1 85d
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister BUY Yes 84¢ $1 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $5 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.40 · official $36.40 (match) · 56 history records