Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x682f…3265 other 1229 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,194 (-1%) realized −$1,194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%631W / 597L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$186
14 days+$197
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,932
other 39% −$184
world 1% −$30
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.5% -25.4% 41% 41% -24.7%
≤30d 124 +20.4% +8.9% 43% 43% -2.5%
≤90d 741 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -29.6%
all 1228 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 51% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 51% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 51% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 48% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 38% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$75 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses631 / 597
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1228 / 1229
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$134 +261%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$101 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $51 +$105 +206%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 07 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? Jun 06 $51 +$121 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 58¢ $49 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $51 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $51 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $185 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $51 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $51 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.38 · official $50.38 (match) · 3500 history records