Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x682f…52da crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +205% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +165% what you keep after slip
Net edge+165%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+176.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 6 +205.1% +176.0% 33% 17% -5.9%
≤90d 6 +205.1% +176.0% 33% 17% -5.9%
all 6 +205.1% +176.0% 33% 17% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +176.0% 17% -5.9%
10% +149.6% 17% -14.9%
15% +125.5% 17% -23.1%
20% +103.4% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +205% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $199 −$44 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $327 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$22 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $89 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $78 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $72 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $65 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $43 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $40 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $22 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records