Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x682c…17ae
world · 144 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,791 +95%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open −$833
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,943
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$833
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions472
Markets (closed)4 / 144
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3500.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 472 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 55¢ 80¢ $47 $69 +$21 (+45%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 56¢ 76¢ $48 $65 +$18 (+37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 40¢ 32¢ $66 $53 −$14 (-20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes 57¢ 88¢ $34 $52 +$18 (+54%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $56 $51 −$6 (-10%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 81¢ $22 $50 +$28 (+127%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $40 −$14 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-28%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $32 $37 +$4 (+14%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $26 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 43¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $0 +$81 +342951%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $70 +$5 +7%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $28 +$24 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$746
world 39% −$42
finance 6% +$18
tech 2% −$13
politics 2% −$19
sports 2% +$7
economics 1% −$14
crypto 1% +$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $7 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $9 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $7 0m
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 0m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $10 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $7 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $9 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 0m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 0m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 52¢ $9 0m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 52¢ $6 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $10 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 0m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 1m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+464.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +523.8% +464.4% 100% 50% +14.5%
≤30d 4 +523.8% +464.4% 100% 50% +14.5%
≤90d 4 +523.8% +464.4% 100% 50% +14.5%
all 4 +523.8% +464.4% 100% 50% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +464.4% 50% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here +410.4% 50% +3.5%
15% +361.0% 50% -6.5%
20% +315.8% 50% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,943.40 · official $6,961.32 (match) · 3500 history records