Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x6829…456b other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,980 (-56%) realized −$2,982 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$525
14 days−$525
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$2,477
other 45% −$651
sports 9% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 50% -28.1%
≤30d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 50% -28.1%
≤90d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 50% -28.1%
all 15 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 47% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 47% -63.5%
10% -29.7% 47% -67.0%
15% -36.5% 47% -70.2%
20% -42.7% 33% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$462 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$2,982
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage589d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $275 $277 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $203 −$9 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $253 +$144 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $253 +$138 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$185 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $126 +$72 +57%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $2,477 −$2,477 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $194 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $279 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $253 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $253 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 3d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $121 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 5d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,477 588d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.41 · official $277.41 (match) · 27 history records