Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x6827…e99d sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$840 (-0%) realized −$840 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,424per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,326
politics 36% −$79
sports 19% +$527
culture 2% −$3
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +10.8% +0.2% 15% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 81 +6.0% -4.1% 14% 7% -9.9%
all 133 +0.2% -9.4% 21% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 15% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 14% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 12% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,711) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$24 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$840
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,424
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,398 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,833 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,937 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 14 $319 +$4 +1%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,185 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $52 +$67 +129%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $983 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $66 +$66 +101%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,580 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,589 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $441 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $526 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $818 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,383 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $39 +$55 +140%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $562 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $354 $0 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 19 $1,101 −$1,101 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,964 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,325 +$363 +27%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $3,227 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,441 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1,454 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $4,323 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $594 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $595 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $922 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $923 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $867 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $869 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $960 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $962 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $844 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $845 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $972 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $973 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $987 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $988 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $593 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $594 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $319 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $934 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $935 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $990 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $992 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $978 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 446 history records