Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6826…79e3 crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%178W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$15
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$23
other 2% −$80
politics 0% +$7
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$6
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 61 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 193 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses178 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage411d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $207 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $207 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $203 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 15? Jun 15 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $196 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $195 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 05 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 04 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 2? Jun 03 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 1? Jun 01 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 29? May 31 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 21? May 22 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? May 20 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 19 $190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 14? May 15 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 13? May 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 12? May 13 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 8? May 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 7? May 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 6? May 07 $188 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 06 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 4? May 05 $185 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 3? May 04 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 2? May 03 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 1? May 02 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 30? May 01 $183 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 22? Apr 23 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 21? Apr 22 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 20? Apr 21 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 18? Apr 20 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 17? Apr 18 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 16? Apr 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? Apr 16 $180 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 13? Apr 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? Apr 13 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $179 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $207 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $207 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $203 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $196 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $195 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $195 19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $194 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $194 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $192 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $192 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $192 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $191 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $191 35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $190 39d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $190 40d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 41d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $189 42d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $189 46d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $189 47d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $188 48d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $187 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.89 · official $209.89 (match) · 399 history records