Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x681f…02d0 crypto 1048 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$750 (-11%) realized −$745 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%644W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$84
14 days−$247
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$514
weather 0% −$20
other 0% −$8
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -10.5% -19.1% 69% 20% -15.7%
≤30d 667 -8.9% -17.6% 69% 21% -16.4%
≤90d 1047 -7.2% -16.0% 62% 26% -16.6%
all 1047 -7.2% -16.0% 62% 26% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 26% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 19% -24.6%
15% -31.4% 12% -31.9%
20% -38.1% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$745
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses644 / 403
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1047 / 1048
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 34¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.62 (match) · 3500 history records