Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x681e…7ad9 world 20 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-13%) realized −$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 29% +$1
world 22% −$47
other 18% +$6
crypto 18% −$16
tech 8% −$11
politics 2% $0
economics 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -72.0%
≤30d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -72.0%
≤90d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -72.0%
all 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -72.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.1% 25% -72.0%
10% ← realistic here -69.3% 25% -74.7%
15% -72.3% 25% -77.1%
20% -75.0% 0% -79.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)4 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 19¢ $5 $35 +$30 (+591%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-39%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 18¢ 7¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-64%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 12¢ 36¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+204%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 14¢ $2 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 12¢ $1 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 47h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 47h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 19¢ $10 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 47h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 47h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 36¢ $35 47h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.72 · official $188.83 (match) · 32 history records