Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x681e…b12b other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 45L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$8
world 27% +$16
sports 25% +$18
other 18% +$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.3%
all 74 -0.7% -10.1% 39% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage484d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $125 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $172 +$9 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $148 +$12 +8%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $28 +$2 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $219 +$5 +2%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $1,173 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $650 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $577 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,239 −$8 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $273 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 12 $11 $0 +4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 23 $12 −$3 -24%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $27 59m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $27 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $94 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $65 25h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $181 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $181 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $165 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $172 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $50 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $98 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $175 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $140 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records