Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
68 0x681d…4cbf sports 1513 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 219d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,452 (+7%) realized +$6,574 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%688W / 818L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 220d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$3,554
other 15% +$1,266
politics 1% +$230
world 0% +$25
economics 0% −$107
culture 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +33.6% +20.9% 44% 44% -28.9%
≤30d 95 +6.7% -3.4% 46% 46% -29.1%
≤90d 459 -7.2% -16.1% 44% 44% -20.4%
all 1506 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 45% -11.6%
10% -20.7% 44% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 42% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 39% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$52 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$6,574
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses688 / 818
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1506 / 1513
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$26 +57%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$4 -9%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$157 +307%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$261 +510%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 +$59 +124%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$119 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $599 −$599 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,997 −$993 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $97 +$51 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $51 +$49 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $51 +$45 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 14¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $49 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $51 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $51 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $51 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 16¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $50 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $48 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $47 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Steve Garcia 33¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.67 · official $100.67 (match) · 3500 history records