Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x681d…4912
crypto · 330 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$185 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$204 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses89 / 241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage208d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 330 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$84
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$8 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$219
politics 3% +$18
economics 3% $0
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -7.6% -16.4% 22% 8% -15.6%
≤30d 308 -8.2% -16.9% 27% 11% -16.0%
≤90d 308 -8.2% -16.9% 27% 11% -16.0%
all 330 -8.7% -17.4% 27% 12% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 12% -17.2%
10% -25.3% 10% -25.1%
15% -32.5% 8% -32.4%
20% -39.1% 6% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1265 history records