Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x681b…bfed other 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 764d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$563 (+1%) realized +$557 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate84%241W / 46L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$85
14 days+$161
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$239
other 24% +$535
crypto 19% +$285
world 18% −$25
sports 3% −$180
tech 2% −$334
economics 1% +$21
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 89% 50% -5.3%
≤30d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 45% -4.9%
≤90d 32 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 44% -4.8%
all 287 -6.0% -14.9% 84% 21% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 21% -8.6%
10% -23.1% 7% -17.3%
15% -30.5% 4% -25.3%
20% -37.3% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$75 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

764d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$557
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses241 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)287 / 292
History coverage764d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 98¢ $75 $79 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 72¢ $81 $72 −$9 (-11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $255 +$25 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $152 +$18 +12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $148 +$22 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $177 +$23 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $76 +$4 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $68 +$12 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $72 +$8 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$9 +12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$12 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $94 +$6 +7%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $76 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $122 +$21 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 30 $54 −$54 -99%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $92 +$8 +9%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 26 $89 +$21 +24%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $273 +$27 +10%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Feb 24 $30 −$4 -15%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 13 $184 −$184 -100%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $66 −$66 -100%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) Feb 12 $91 +$9 +10%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 10 $84 +$36 +43%
T20 World Cup: Oman vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 10 $100 +$30 +30%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 08 $80 +$40 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $570 +$30 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 01 $230 +$20 +9%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Feb 01 $274 +$26 +10%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 01 $141 +$9 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $240 +$10 +4%
Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31? Jan 01 $91 +$9 +10%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Jan 01 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $226 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $75 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $81 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $96 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $85 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $255 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $152 33h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $76 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $148 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $177 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $77 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $68 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $72 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $71 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $70 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $96 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $62 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $85 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $96 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $86 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $50 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $91 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $93 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $108 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $113 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $89 11d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $85 15d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 94¢ $94 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.79 · official $292.66 (match) · 642 history records