Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x681b…cc54 crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+1%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%259W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$92
14 days+$198
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$194
other 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 262 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.5%
≤90d 262 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.5%
all 262 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×44.5 per $1 lost it wins $44.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses259 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage21d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $250 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $350 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $250 +$5 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $250 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $250 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $250 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $250 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $86 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 539 history records