Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x681a…f63a
crypto · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses31 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $128 −$98 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $107 −$43 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $130 +$32 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $159 −$125 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$31 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $79 +$317 +403%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.3% -8.4% 72% 40% -10.0%
≤30d 43 +1.3% -8.4% 72% 40% -10.0%
≤90d 43 +1.3% -8.4% 72% 40% -10.0%
all 43 +1.3% -8.4% 72% 40% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 40% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 26% -18.7%
15% -25.1% 14% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records