Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x6819…12ba crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%102W / 1L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$26
politics 11% +$5
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 103 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 103 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.9%
all 103 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 0% -7.9%
10% -16.6% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.7%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses102 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 10m
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.30 · official $152.30 (match) · 214 history records