trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 50% | 50% | +41.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 50% | 50% | +41.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 50% | 50% | +41.8% |
| all | 25 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 44% | 28% | +2.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 28% | +2.2% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 20% | -7.6% |
| 15% | -29.4% | 12% | -16.5% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 12% | -24.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 56¢ | 48¢ | $2,438 | $2,083 | −$355 (-15%) |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Yes | 70¢ | 74¢ | $1,889 | $2,003 | +$114 (+6%) |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 39¢ | 30¢ | $1,117 | $849 | −$268 (-24%) |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 74¢ | 67¢ | $400 | $362 | −$38 (-9%) |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 18¢ | 13¢ | $119 | $88 | −$31 (-26%) |
| Will Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 49¢ | $20 | $49 | +$29 (+145%) |
| Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 20¢ | $27 | $20 | −$7 (-26%) |
| Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? | No | 17¢ | 28¢ | $4 | $6 | +$2 (+62%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $30 | +$22 | +72% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? | Mar 06 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Mar 03 | $31 | +$141 | +456% |
| Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027? | Jan 29 | $979 | +$8 | +1% |
| Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? | Jan 27 | $102 | +$9 | +9% |
| Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? | Jan 27 | $248 | +$17 | +7% |
| Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Jan 27 | $1,773 | +$527 | +30% |
| Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $12 | +$1 | +8% |
| Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $43 | −$2 | -4% |
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | Jan 11 | $53 | +$7 | +13% |
| Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? | Jan 11 | $2,263 | −$1,085 | -48% |
| Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? | Jan 11 | $89 | −$15 | -17% |
| Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jan 10 | $23 | −$22 | -96% |
| Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jan 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jan 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jan 09 | $10 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? | Jan 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 31 | $12,865 | +$2,093 | +16% |
| Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $330 | −$212 | -64% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $1,971 | −$328 | -17% |
| No airdrop in 2025? | Dec 30 | $83 | −$32 | -39% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Dec 30 | $438 | −$272 | -62% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 31? | Dec 30 | $225 | +$53 | +24% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? | Dec 30 | $415 | +$879 | +212% |