Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6815…9edb sports 941 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193,724 (-14%) realized −$193,656 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%429W / 502L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$14,506est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$29,528
other 29% +$8,751
world 1% −$5,087
crypto 0% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +10.2% -0.3% 46% 46% +26.1%
≤30d 534 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 44% -13.9%
≤90d 931 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 44% -11.2%
all 931 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 44% -11.2%
10% -20.5% 43% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 39% -27.5%
20% -35.2% 33% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$867) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,106 vs −$997 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,005
Realized−$193,656
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses429 / 502
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$14,506
Open positions10
Markets (closed)931 / 941
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ 100¢ $202 $1,063 +$861 (+426%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 54¢ $773 $781 +$8 (+1%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 73¢ 70¢ $58 $56 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 63¢ 58¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 32¢ $62 $40 −$22 (-36%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Under 33¢ 8¢ $25 $6 −$20 (-77%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 38¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Under 42¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +226%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 17 $99 +$27 +27%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 17 $83 +$47 +56%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $86 +$65 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $161 +$1,284 +799%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $9 +$23 +252%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $71 +$104 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $234 +$266 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $103 −$9 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $36 +$48 +132%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $49 −$30 -61%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $252 −$252 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 −$19 -44%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $292 +$197 +67%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $245 +$405 +165%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $24 +$9 +39%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +112%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 +$11 +172%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $14 +$21 +154%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $4 +$13 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $10 28m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $10 28m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $10 28m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 10¢ $5 56m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $207 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $210 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $123 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 20¢ $376 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $86 3h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 63¢ $83 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 65¢ $7 3h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY San Diego Padres 78¢ $99 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 22¢ $29 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 16¢ $5 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 20¢ $128 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $50 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 73¢ $59 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 33¢ $26 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $63 5h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $50 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $784 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $62 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $15 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $33 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,005.31 · official $2,005.31 (match) · 3500 history records