Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x680d…a342 world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$154 (-2%) realized −$287 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$23
crypto 10% −$112
sports 2% −$18
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -65.8% -69.1% 0% 0% -73.5%
≤30d 2 -65.8% -69.1% 0% 0% -73.5%
≤90d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 38% +15.9%
all 48 -20.5% -28.1% 58% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 35% -13.4%
10% -35.0% 19% -21.7%
15% -41.2% 17% -29.2%
20% -47.0% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$57 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1,523
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage475d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $556 $644 +$88 (+16%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $120 $130 +$10 (+9%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $101 $117 +$16 (+16%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? No 1¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $3 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? May 23 $374 +$9 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 23 $200 +$215 +107%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 10 $46 +$6 +12%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 10 $300 +$21 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $35 +$23 +67%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $300 +$17 +6%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 16 $40 +$6 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $301 −$301 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $43 +$8 +18%
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Mar 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 27 $3 −$2 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Black History Month re Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? Feb 14 $42 +$17 +41%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31? Feb 14 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Jan 16 $40 +$15 +37%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jan 01 $150 +$24 +16%
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? Jan 01 $400 +$54 +14%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $182 +$10 +5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 01 $443 +$23 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $550 −$526 -96%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Oct 25 $175 +$12 +7%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Sep 13 $100 +$49 +49%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Aug 02 $518 +$93 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin all time high before 2026? Jun 07 $120 −$120 -100%
Will ETH hard fork before June? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ripple above $2.00 on April 18? May 03 $3 −$2 -64%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 18? May 03 $3 +$5 +156%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30? May 03 $78 +$2 +3%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $659 +$24 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 18 $400 +$94 +23%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Ukraine control Demidovka on March 31? Mar 31 $163 +$11 +7%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 27 $5 −$3 -53%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31? Mar 12 $396 +$49 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? SELL No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $62 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 16¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 9¢ $3 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $110 35d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $120 35d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $120 35d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $120 35d
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $120 35d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $200 35d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 98¢ $374 77d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 89d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $29 89d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 76¢ $248 90d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 90¢ $30 90d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $23 103d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 37¢ $23 103d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $23 103d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 37¢ $23 103d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 104d
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 105d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 106d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 106d
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $101 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,522.92 · official $1,521.05 (match) · 467 history records