Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x680b…a213 crypto 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,492 (+16%) realized +$4,376 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%111W / 246L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day190.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 357 -41.3% -46.8% 31% 23% -15.0%
≤90d 357 -41.3% -46.8% 31% 23% -15.0%
all 357 -41.3% -46.8% 31% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.8% 23% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 15% -23.1%
15% -56.6% 8% -30.5%
20% -60.8% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$4,376
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses111 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)357 / 196
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$148
Trades / day190.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $200 $316 +$116 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $28 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $75 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $58 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.52 · official $315.52 (match) · 3500 history records