Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x680a…0a15
crypto · 680 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$434 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$644
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses319 / 310
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions51
Markets (closed)629 / 680
History coverage42d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 51 History 629 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$56
14 days+$80
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 40¢ $46 $117 +$71 (+153%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $92 $107 +$15 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 60¢ $61 $75 +$15 (+24%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 25¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+67%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 71¢ 78¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? No 2¢ 80¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+3875%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 39¢ 82¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+110%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 90¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? No 76¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 57¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? No 77¢ 75¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $33 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 37% −$247
other 20% +$25
sports 18% +$274
world 13% +$29
politics 7% −$22
tech 2% −$3
weather 1% −$77
finance 0% +$14
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 93¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 93¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 -1.1% -10.6% 62% 59% -10.4%
≤30d 564 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 629 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 42% -10.0%
all 629 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 42% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 39% -18.6%
15% -30.3% 36% -26.5%
20% -37.2% 16% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.38 · official $644.35 (match) · 2459 history records