Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x6804…29e2 sports 1108 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,457 (+15%) realized +$23,647 · open −$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%659W / 426L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day104.5pace
Fees−$1,681est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +23.6% +11.8% 65% 52% +40.3%
≤30d 1085 +5.4% -4.6% 61% 50% -6.1%
≤90d 1085 +5.4% -4.6% 61% 50% -6.1%
all 1085 +5.4% -4.6% 61% 50% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 50% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 40% -15.1%
15% -22.1% 34% -23.3%
20% -29.7% 24% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$116 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,599
Realized+$23,647
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses659 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,681
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1085 / 1108
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day104.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 92¢ 88¢ $1,000 $962 −$38 (-4%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 73¢ 74¢ $205 $206 +$0 (+0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 94¢ $109 $204 +$95 (+87%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 87¢ 86¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 9¢ 4¢ $125 $54 −$71 (-57%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ 42¢ $22 $13 −$10 (-44%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 11¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 60¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Cabo Verde 11¢ 2¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 69¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+42%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 33¢ 47¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+42%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 99¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Under 89¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 99¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 47¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Under 99¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 21 $21 −$3 -13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $40 +$17 +41%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +18%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $8 $0 +5%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 +$4 +49%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +113%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $235 +$139 +59%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $83 +$18 +21%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +22%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $19 −$10 -52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $4 +$5 +118%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +64%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $145 +$31 +21%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $37 +$5 +13%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,005 +$38 +4%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +16%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $1 +$2 +157%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +41%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 +$3 +45%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $318 +$107 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $11 +$9 +78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 21 $65 +$25 +39%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +113%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +61%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$4 +113%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $676 +$1,019 +151%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 +43%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $856 +$181 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 173.5 Jun 21 $23 +$2 +8%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 21 $23 +$2 +9%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $45 +$2 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +78%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +21%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 21 $106 +$44 +42%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 21 $104 +$59 +56%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 21 $238 +$218 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 9m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 59m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 11¢ $14 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $126 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $22 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $57 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $39 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 94¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 93¢ $124 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $48 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $63 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 96¢ $466 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $500 1h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 88¢ $38 2h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 60¢ $3 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $18 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $40 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $8 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 95¢ $8 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 3h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ $1 3h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 84¢ $1 3h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $23 3h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 66¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,598.78 · official $1,588.31 (match) · 3500 history records