Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6801…d577 crypto 552 markets active 1d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$680 (-10%) realized −$670 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%345W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$184
14 days−$276
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$742
world 8% $0
other 4% −$16
sports 4% +$9
weather 1% −$10
politics 1% −$27
culture 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 27% -36.2%
≤30d 26 -36.1% -42.2% 38% 23% -32.4%
≤90d 543 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 34% -21.1%
all 545 -8.9% -17.6% 63% 34% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 34% -21.2%
10% -25.5% 19% -28.7%
15% -32.7% 8% -35.6%
20% -39.3% 4% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$670
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses345 / 200
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)545 / 552
History coverage90d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 91¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday 94¢ 90¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? Yes 91¢ 64¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? Yes 79¢ 55¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $154 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $206 +$9 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $104 −$75 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 13 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 13 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +8%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 08 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 08 $50 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $138 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.24 · official $391.23 (match) · 1847 history records