trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | $207 | $316 | +$109 (+53%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $127 | $126 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $121 | $120 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $82 | $72 | −$9 (-11%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $65 | $63 | −$3 (-4%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $67 | $59 | −$8 (-12%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $32 | $36 | +$3 (+10%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $6 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 01 | $152 | −$152 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul | May 29 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong | May 29 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | May 29 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar | May 29 | $9 | −$5 | -52% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien | May 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe | May 28 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula | Mar 25 | $5 | +$7 | +136% |
| Stars vs. Wild | Mar 21 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Jets vs. Penguins | Mar 21 | $7 | +$2 | +28% |
| Miami Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Madison Keys | Mar 21 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Raptors vs. Nuggets | Mar 21 | $12 | −$12 | -99% |
| Avalanche vs. Blackhawks | Mar 21 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +24.3% | +12.4% | 100% | 100% | +12.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -30.5% | -37.1% | 25% | 12% | -86.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -11.1% | -19.5% | 50% | 21% | -75.2% |
| all | 14 | -11.1% | -19.5% | 50% | 21% | -75.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.5% | 21% | -75.2% |
| 10% | -27.2% | 21% | -77.6% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 7% | -79.7% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 7% | -81.7% |