Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6800…587b crypto 1006 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,843 (-7%) realized −$4,843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%563W / 443L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$150
14 days+$230
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.7% -7.9% 64% 45% -5.1%
≤30d 210 -1.0% -10.4% 57% 51% -4.6%
≤90d 1006 -5.9% -14.8% 56% 48% -14.2%
all 1006 -5.9% -14.8% 56% 48% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 48% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 37% -22.4%
15% -30.4% 25% -29.9%
20% -37.2% 16% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$44 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses563 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1006 / 1006
History coverage87d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1006 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $203 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $358 +$100 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$21 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $42 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $24 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $56 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $54 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $56 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $151 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.