Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67fb…377e crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-14%) realized −$107 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%26W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$17
world 26% +$84
politics 22% −$166
tech 8% −$1
other 5% −$14
finance 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 100% +50.9%
≤30d 1 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 100% +50.9%
≤90d 2 -16.6% -24.6% 50% 50% -72.0%
all 47 -4.8% -13.9% 55% 47% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 47% -23.5%
10% -22.1% 30% -30.8%
15% -29.6% 23% -37.5%
20% -36.5% 21% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses26 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage152d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 74¢ 73¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 17 $36 +$24 +67%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 24 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Mar 16 $18 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $31 +$37 +117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $40 +$16 +41%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $18 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 28 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 28 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 28 $2 +$5 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 28 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 28 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $13 −$7 -52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 27 $1 +$2 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 25 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $2 +$3 +138%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 24 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 23 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 23 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 03 $10 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? Feb 02 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 02 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Feb 02 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $18 +$2 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $36 +$10 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $5 +$1 +22%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 74¢ $60 1h
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $72 84d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 92d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 93d
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $19 93d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $68 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 107d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 108d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $19 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 108d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 109d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $7 109d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? SELL No 58¢ $6 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? BUY No 49¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.63 · official $58.63 (match) · 108 history records