Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67fa…4647 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$344 (+28%) realized +$341 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$17
other 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 42% 42% -8.2%
≤30d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 42% 42% -8.2%
≤90d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 42% 42% -8.2%
all 19 +7.2% -3.0% 42% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 42% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 42% -17.0%
15% -20.8% 42% -25.0%
20% -28.5% 42% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$53 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$341
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $99 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$74 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$60 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $58 +$122 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $129 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$123 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$28 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $54 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $99 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $99 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $35 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.59 · official $59.59 (match) · 39 history records