trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -28.1% | -35.0% | 29% | 29% | -38.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -37.1% | -43.1% | 25% | 25% | -40.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -37.1% | -43.1% | 25% | 25% | -40.1% |
| all | 12 | -58.1% | -62.1% | 17% | 17% | -43.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -62.1% | 17% | -43.6% |
| 10% | -65.7% | 17% | -49.0% |
| 15% | -69.0% | 8% | -53.9% |
| 20% | -72.1% | 8% | -58.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? | No | 16¢ | 8¢ | $15 | $7 | −$8 (-54%) |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-52%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Jun 28 | $287 | −$285 | -99% |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 28 | $224 | +$66 | +29% |
| Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | Jun 27 | $155 | −$63 | -41% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Jun 27 | $51 | −$5 | -10% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | Jun 27 | $19 | −$8 | -41% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 26 | $101 | +$65 | +65% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | Jun 26 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main | Jun 15 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | Mar 21 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Mar 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Mar 21 | $29 | −$3 | -10% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Mar 17 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |