Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67f7…f981 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (337 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$59 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day337.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (337 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 13% -10.1%
≤30d 63 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 13% -10.1%
≤90d 63 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 13% -10.1%
all 63 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover337.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 13% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 8% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 5% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day337.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 32¢ 66¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 52¢ 34¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 56¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.01 · official $112.23 (match) · 398 history records