Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
67 0x67f7…4047 other 9 markets active 5h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$23 (+43%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5
sports 40% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +34.1% +21.3% 25% 25% +30.7%
≤30d 8 +34.1% +21.3% 25% 25% +30.7%
≤90d 8 +34.1% +21.3% 25% 25% +30.7%
all 8 +34.1% +21.3% 25% 25% +30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.3% 25% +30.7%
10% +9.7% 25% +18.2%
15% -0.9% 25% +6.8%
20% -10.6% 25% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$6 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 3+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 3+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 11 history records