Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67f4…9a2f sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$94 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$40
weather 25% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.6% +3.7% 93% 33% +14.3%
≤30d 15 +14.6% +3.7% 93% 33% +14.3%
≤90d 15 +14.6% +3.7% 93% 33% +14.3%
all 15 +14.6% +3.7% 93% 33% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 33% +14.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 27% +3.4%
15% -15.3% 20% -6.6%
20% -23.6% 20% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$0 · ×9782.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×136961.6 per $1 lost it wins $136961.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Athletics 51¢ 48¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Atlanta Dream 33¢ 12¢ $75 $28 −$47 (-62%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 23¢ 3¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $76 +$43 +56%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $50 +$8 +16%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $102 +$51 +50%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $26 +$14 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $50 +$16 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 21¢ $26 29m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 50¢ $25 29m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 52¢ $25 29m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $25 40m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $26 41m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 46¢ $25 48m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 46¢ $25 48m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $39 48m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $6 49m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $26 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $26 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $29 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $29 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $25 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $25 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $25 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Minnesota Lynx 66¢ $40 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $38 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $38 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $25 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $40 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 40¢ $25 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 40¢ $25 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 41¢ $25 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $33 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $33 2h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 25¢ $26 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 48¢ $33 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.61 · official $116.61 (match) · 61 history records