Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
67 0x67f1…3863 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-0%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,549per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$30
14 days−$47
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$122
politics 40% −$105
sports 5% +$35
economics 4% −$10
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 44 +1.0% -8.6% 9% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 118 +2.0% -7.7% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -24.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -32.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,838) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$6 · ×5.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,549
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $222 $222 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $212 $212 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $4,156 −$5 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $3,495 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,116 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $939 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $2,680 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,599 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,749 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,354 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $192 +$2 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,057 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $3,001 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,695 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $4,691 −$7 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,688 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $55 +$66 +119%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,182 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $56 +$72 +129%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,176 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,859 −$4 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $681 +$1 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,479 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $223 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $795 24h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $797 27h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $633 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $651 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $652 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $604 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $604 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $970 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,089 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $212 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,090 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $414 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $937 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.64 · official $434.64 (match) · 361 history records