Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x67f0…5860 politics 159 markets active 13h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,815 (-1%) realized −$1,815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,517per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days−$58
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$132
other 31% −$81
sports 14% −$1,646
economics 3% −$5
world 3% +$10
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 +1.3% -8.4% 8% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -9.2% -17.9% 8% 5% -10.9%
all 157 +1.6% -8.1% 22% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -10.2%
10% -16.9% 11% -18.8%
15% -24.9% 9% -26.7%
20% -32.3% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,146) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$28 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$1,815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,517
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $165 $165 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $2,146 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 22 $311 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,752 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,886 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $949 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,973 −$6 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $2,184 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,629 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6,613 −$7 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,758 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,836 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $7,659 −$9 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,226 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $66 +$72 +109%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $997 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $3,614 −$5 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,661 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $46 +$61 +134%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $1,915 −$3 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $484 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,876 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,652 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,978 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $2,583 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,141 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,292 −$5 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $59 +$73 +124%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,573 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $650 13h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $651 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $174 14h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $671 16h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $672 16h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $310 19h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $311 21h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $738 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $947 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $949 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,217 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,219 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.72 · official $338.72 (match) · 526 history records