trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +20.4% | +8.9% | 100% | 25% | -4.3% |
| all | 21 | +4.1% | -5.8% | 100% | 5% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.8% | 5% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 5% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 5% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -30.6% | 5% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $41 | $41 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? | No | 99¢ | 97¢ | $24 | $23 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 18 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? | May 31 | $126 | $0 | +0% |
| Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? | May 04 | $20 | +$16 | +81% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the | Mar 25 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Mar 03 | $175 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world | Feb 17 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Feb 06 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | Feb 03 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 12 above $295? | Jan 17 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? | Jan 12 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 10, 2026? | Jan 11 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 9? | Jan 10 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026? | Jan 04 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| GTA VI released in 2025? | Jan 03 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025? | Jan 03 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 03 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Is Earth flat? | Jan 03 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of December? | Jan 03 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31? | Jan 03 | $52 | $0 | +1% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? | Dec 31 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced by March 31? | Dec 26 | $28 | $0 | +1% |