Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ee…3b01 sports 292 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,478 (+8%) realized +$2,486 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate35%101W / 190L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$526
7 days+$484
14 days+$1,137
30 days+$2,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,783
other 20% +$483
crypto 3% −$22
world 2% −$42
politics 0% −$16
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% −$7
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 82% 24% -4.6%
≤30d 99 +3.8% -6.1% 75% 33% +4.6%
≤90d 157 -5.9% -14.9% 59% 29% -1.9%
all 291 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 17% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 17% -2.4%
10% -32.3% 13% -11.7%
15% -38.9% 10% -20.2%
20% -44.9% 7% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$27 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,609
Realized+$2,486
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses101 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage92d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 54¢ 54¢ $1,618 $1,609 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +61%
Exact Score: Henan FC 1 - 1 Shanghai Haigang FC? Jun 27 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $250 −$25 -10%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $312 −$312 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $1 $0 +10%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $4 $0 +10%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $488 +$62 +13%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $408 +$2 +0%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $3 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $106 +$35 +33%
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $161 +$51 +32%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $560 +$58 +10%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $495 −$495 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $539 +$97 +18%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $276 +$22 +8%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 $0 +8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 −$30 -60%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $9 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $347 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $493 +$232 +47%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: Maghreb AS de Fès O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $7 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $12 $0 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $57 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 25 $155 +$21 +13%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $77 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $15 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $74 +$1 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $22 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $112 +$1 +0%
Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2 $0 +15%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $53 +$5 +9%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $147 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $240 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $100 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $200 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $974 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $374 2h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 2h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $144 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $33 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $250 8h
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Henan FC 1 - 1 Shanghai Haigang FC? BUY No 85¢ $14 9h
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 88¢ $488 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $408 17h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 18h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 19h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $3 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $312 25h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY No 90¢ $560 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 74¢ $106 25h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $161 25h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $495 29h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY No 84¢ $539 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.41 · official $1,609.41 (match) · 1395 history records