Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ed…f4f0 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$13
other 20% −$9
politics 13% −$1
sports 12% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.4% -19.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 30 -3.4% -12.6% 30% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 65 -1.7% -11.1% 26% 0% -9.2%
all 69 -3.2% -12.4% 26% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage526d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $55 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $164 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $104 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $163 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $132 +$10 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $52 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $161 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $53 +$4 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $76 +$3 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $121 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $8 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $55 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $55 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $55 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $55 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $49 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.42 · official $50.85 (match) · 330 history records