Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ed…085a sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,081 (-7%) realized −$8,077 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%65W / 66L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$910per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1,308est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,586
7 days+$1,394
14 days−$7,054
30 days−$7,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$9,203
other 13% +$1,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 60% -6.1%
≤30d 109 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 46% -15.1%
≤90d 114 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 46% -15.0%
all 131 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 46% -15.2%
10% -24.3% 40% -23.3%
15% -31.6% 37% -30.7%
20% -38.3% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,120) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$607 vs −$719 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$8,077
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses65 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,308
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage592d
Avg bet$910
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 46¢ $414 $410 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 27 $4,186 +$599 +14%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $2,897 +$1,099 +38%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $4,474 +$1,331 +30%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,739 +$677 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $664 −$664 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,060 +$604 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5,971 +$1,129 +19%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $901 +$464 +52%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $516 +$500 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $1,218 +$505 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,042 +$1,903 +93%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $2,051 +$324 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $422 −$422 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $974 +$532 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $671 −$658 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $2,427 −$2,426 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,542 −$1,542 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $874 +$393 +45%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $3,274 −$1,024 -31%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $1,055 +$543 +52%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $1,816 −$1,803 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,717 −$1,706 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $3,958 +$389 +10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $832 +$1,568 +188%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1,186 +$1,772 +149%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $2,316 −$1,397 -60%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $327 −$327 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $914 +$418 +46%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $573 +$73 +13%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2,355 −$2,322 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1,599 −$1,597 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $861 −$861 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,460 +$3,104 +212%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $764 −$678 -89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,796 +$754 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,661 +$1,139 +43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1,143 −$1,143 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $548 −$547 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $901 −$890 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,147 −$2,143 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $799 +$1,862 +233%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,681 −$3,675 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,124 −$1,120 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,666 +$382 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $414 59m
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 88¢ $1 1h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 88¢ $314 1h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 88¢ $22 1h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 88¢ $355 1h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 87¢ $1,679 1h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 87¢ $1,815 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 72¢ $559 3h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 72¢ $2,338 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $2,901 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $8 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $439 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $2,793 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $32 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $1,004 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $197 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $97 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $95 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $17 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $11 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $122 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $34 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $283 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 55¢ $6 5h
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 80¢ $2,739 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No $79 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $1,060 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 84¢ $1,435 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 84¢ $4,536 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 65¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.50 · official $409.50 (match) · 614 history records