Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ec…87d6 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$71
crypto 30% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 0% -45.3%
≤30d 4 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 0% -45.3%
≤90d 4 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 0% -45.3%
all 4 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 0% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.3% 0% -45.3%
10% -62.3% 0% -50.6%
15% -65.9% 0% -55.4%
20% -69.3% 0% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$20 -21%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $32 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $74 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.14 · official $8.36 (match) · 11 history records