Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e7…fb6c crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-14%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day85.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$107
other 5% +$11
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 41% -27.6%
≤30d 39 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 41% -27.6%
≤90d 39 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 41% -27.6%
all 39 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 41% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 41% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -34.5%
15% -35.1% 33% -40.8%
20% -41.5% 28% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day85.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -59%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$34 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$18 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$24 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$23 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) SELL G2 21¢ $0 23m
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) BUY G2 49¢ $1 25m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Uni BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.97 · official $11.97 · 112 history records