Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e3…7dec sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$138 (-18%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$19
14 days−$62
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$91
world 28% −$122
finance 7% +$71
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 52% -18.4%
≤30d 65 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 51% -20.4%
≤90d 65 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 51% -20.4%
all 65 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 51% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 51% -20.4%
10% -22.9% 48% -28.0%
15% -30.3% 43% -34.9%
20% -37.2% 34% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage25d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $13 −$12 -99%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +130%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $12 −$11 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $11 +$8 +74%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $9 +$5 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +146%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $14 +$6 +46%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $12 +$7 +63%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $9 +$8 +91%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $16 +$7 +41%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $14 +$8 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $11 +$8 +68%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $10 +$4 +44%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $5 +$4 +71%
Ilkley: Ugo Blanchet vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 08 $7 +$5 +71%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $11 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $8 +$3 +41%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $5 +$3 +47%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $11 +$7 +67%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $9 +$7 +76%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $13 −$13 -99%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $22 −$21 -99%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $17 +$9 +57%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $22 +$5 +24%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $19 +$10 +53%
Prostejov: Miguel Damas vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 02 $3 +$2 +55%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 02 $3 +$1 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $71 −$48 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin SELL Kilian Feldbausch 99¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 100¢ $4 2h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 63¢ $2 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 57¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $2 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $2 14h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 46¢ $3 27h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 62¢ $4 29h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $6 31h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 80¢ $9 40h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 58¢ $13 44h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli SELL Alexis Galarneau 99¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 2d
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith SELL Colton Smith 99¢ $11 2d
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Alexis Galarneau 59¢ $5 2d
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 61¢ $7 2d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 100¢ $10 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 56¢ $6 4d
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Oliver Tarvet 58¢ $8 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 72¢ $12 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 99¢ $19 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 56¢ $11 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 99¢ $14 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 61¢ $9 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 50¢ $11 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records