Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67e3…2a16 crypto 1017 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,382 (+11%) realized +$15,381 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate93%948W / 69L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,847
sports 0% −$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +1.3% -8.3% 93% 12% -7.7%
≤30d 292 +8.0% -2.3% 96% 8% -8.2%
≤90d 1017 +3.8% -6.1% 93% 15% -8.3%
all 1017 +3.8% -6.1% 93% 15% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 15% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 9% -17.1%
15% -23.3% 6% -25.1%
20% -30.8% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$77 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$15,381
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses948 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1017 / 1017
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 34¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $328 +$175 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $275 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $275 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $146 +$205 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $326 +$51 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $278 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $280 −$155 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $320 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $277 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $280 −$176 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $323 −$183 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $249 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $246 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $246 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $255 +$79 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $133 −$128 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $173 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $163 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $280 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $274 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $229 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.40 · official $13.20 (match) · 3500 history records