Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e3…e5b3 sports 610 markets active 1h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,943 (-11%) realized −$5,953 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%267W / 341L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$103
14 days+$150
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$2,923
crypto 36% −$2,437
other 3% −$108
politics 2% −$998
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.7% +5.6% 52% 52% +3.2%
≤30d 38 -8.4% -17.1% 42% 42% -27.2%
≤90d 175 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 44% -13.1%
all 608 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 41% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 41% -20.2%
10% -21.8% 38% -27.9%
15% -29.3% 35% -34.8%
20% -36.3% 29% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$67 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$5,953
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses267 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions2
Markets (closed)608 / 610
History coverage647d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+100%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 61¢ 30¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$192 +188%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$65 +128%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $264 −$242 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$32 -63%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$46 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$63 +240%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $40 +$50 +127%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $41 +$36 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$111 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $63 +$37 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $106 −$63 -60%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $96 −$96 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $18 −$18 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $356 −$342 -96%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $204 +$384 +188%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 12 $462 +$228 +49%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $398 −$394 -99%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $102 +$52 +51%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $245 −$240 -98%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 02 $93 −$93 -100%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $203 +$168 +83%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $508 +$12 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $40 59m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $264 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $87 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.97 · official $80.30 (match) · 2319 history records