Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e0…cd96 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day264.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$21
sports 6% −$3
other 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 30% -2.0%
≤30d 66 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 30% -2.0%
≤90d 66 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 30% -2.0%
all 66 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 30% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 30% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 23% -11.4%
15% -23.8% 18% -19.9%
20% -31.2% 17% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)66 / 74
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 37¢ 92¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+147%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 48¢ 96¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 55¢ 51¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 12¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 33¢ 58¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 30¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 66¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$12 +280%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$13 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $30.75 · 321 history records