Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67df…da6e other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$40
sports 21% −$16
politics 9% −$3
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage128d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $323 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $328 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $829 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $181 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $424 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $345 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $630 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $774 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $277 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $394 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 14h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 24h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 33h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 36h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 39h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.38 · official $53.38 (match) · 1305 history records