Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67dc…a64b crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,466 (-8%) realized −$1,464 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 42L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$750
other 4% −$351
sports 2% $0
politics 2% −$197
culture 1% −$57
tech 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +141.5% +118.5% 50% 50% +18.0%
≤30d 2 +141.5% +118.5% 50% 50% +18.0%
≤90d 2 +141.5% +118.5% 50% 50% +18.0%
all 72 -14.6% -22.8% 42% 40% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 40% -16.4%
10% -30.2% 33% -24.4%
15% -36.9% 29% -31.7%
20% -43.1% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$175 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$1,464
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage266d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$37 +365%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$25 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 27 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23? Nov 19 $600 −$280 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? Nov 18 $184 −$8 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16? Nov 17 $614 +$86 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16? Nov 13 $98 −$12 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16? Nov 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 05 $216 −$37 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $1,160 +$744 +64%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $143 +$157 +110%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET Oct 29 $145 +$105 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 29 $275 +$225 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Oct 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26? Oct 27 $456 +$344 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 20-26? Oct 27 $780 +$220 +28%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Oct 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Oct 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24? Oct 24 $150 +$60 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1PM ET Oct 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 October 20-26? Oct 21 $275 +$225 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21? Oct 21 $184 +$616 +335%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 20-26? Oct 21 $190 −$190 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 10AM ET Oct 21 $145 +$105 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8AM ET Oct 20 $325 +$175 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9AM ET Oct 20 $125 −$122 -98%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7AM ET Oct 20 $250 −$235 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5AM ET Oct 20 $112 +$137 +122%
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 4AM ET Oct 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22? Oct 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET Oct 20 $175 +$75 +43%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8PM ET Oct 20 $350 +$150 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7PM ET Oct 20 $375 +$124 +33%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $315 +$184 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1PM ET Oct 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET Oct 19 $375 −$375 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 19? Oct 19 $430 +$70 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October Oct 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on October 19? Oct 19 $290 −$290 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United Oct 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? Oct 18 $300 +$200 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $5 31m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $199 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23? SELL Yes 16¢ $320 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? SELL Yes 22¢ $176 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? BUY Yes 23¢ $161 221d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23? BUY Yes 30¢ $600 221d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16? SELL Yes 34¢ $85 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16? BUY No 88¢ $568 226d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 226d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 November 10-16? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16? BUY No 84¢ $45 226d
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16? BUY No 27¢ $216 227d
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 November 10-16? BUY No 27¢ $54 227d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? SELL Yes 18¢ $178 234d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $120 238d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 22¢ $89 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 22¢ $38 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 239d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $47.69 (match) · 400 history records